The United States Women’s National Team will make their 2023 World Cup debut on Friday evening (9 p.m. ET) against Vietnam.
Massive favorites are nothing new for the Women’s World Cup, but it’s still hard not to do a double-take when you see that a 55/1 moneyline price for a soccer match.
Nonetheless, that’s what we’re dealing with at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand.
Finding value in a match with a -20000 favorite requires a bit of pencil-and-paper handicapping, but that’s not a bad thing.
United States vs. Vietnam pick
This is the first Women’s World Cup with 32 teams (24 participated in 2019) and while the expanded field should pay dividends in growing the game down the line, it also has set up a handful of matches like this one, where one team has virtually no chance of keeping things close.
In the big picture it’s great that countries like Vietnam are in the World Cup, but things will likely get ugly for the Golden Star Women Warriors on Friday evening.
Not only are the Stars & Stripes a -20000 favorite on the three-way moneyline, but the spread for their curtain-raiser is 6 goals.
The derivative markets are also insanely priced as Alex Morgan is a ridiculous -800 to score a goal and there are three other players (Sophia Smith, Lynn Williams and Megan Rapinoe) at -400 or higher.
All of this tells us that the goals should come fast and furious for the USWNT.
Because this game is in primetime, you’d expect that a lot of folks will be looking to find any way into the market without needing to lay massive prices.
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Most of the money, especially here in the States, will come in on Team USA to cover their spread and go over their team total and that will cause a bit of a tax on those kind of bets, but I think there’s still value to be found backing the Yanks to do some damage.
It can take some teams a game or two to find their rhythm in a tournament, but this is the ideal matchup for the USWNT to hit the ground running.
I’d expect the gameplan to be to get out to a big lead early, which should allow them to ease off the pedal in preparation for a huge match against the Netherlands on Wednesday night.
Thus, I like taking a shot on over 4.5 goals (+340) to be scored in the first half.
The bet: First half over 4.5 goals (+340, FanDuel)