For the heck of it, let’s say that Shohei Ohtani is available.
Why would the Yankees get him exactly?
You never say never when it comes to the Yankees, but many executives expect the Rays to be motivated buyers, and they have a much deeper system than the Yankees.
So do the Orioles.
So do the Dodgers — though it is hard to find any executive who believes even if Angels owner Arte Moreno approves a trade that he would OK one to his hated neighbor to the north.
When it comes to owner and head of baseball operation duos you can imagine mortgaging a lot of prospect collateral for potentially just a few months of the free-agent-to-be Ohtani while not currently being a playoff lock, the Phillies’ John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski should be taken ahead of the Yankees’ Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman.
The Rangers seem to have the go-for-it bug, and outside officials think they would be real players if Ohtani got into the market.
The Giants could pursue Ohtani now, as not just a doorway to the playoffs, but also as a first step toward signing him in the offseason — especially if staying on the West Coast remains a priority for Ohtani.
Personnel who have been with the Angels say Ohtani is such a creature of habit that an acquiring team that can bring him comfort and a routine that works over even two months would gain valuable points in free agency.
Of course, the Angels just swept the Yankees and began the weekend only one behind them and five out of the wild card.
Why, then, should they be sellers and the Yankees buyers?
For the heck of it, let’s say that Juan Soto is available.
Why would the Yankees get him exactly?
See all the above reasons.
Soto cannot be a free agent until after next season, and San Diego is as much a pot-committed team this year as any club, despite beginning the weekend at 46-51.
So to even consider dealing Soto (which I think they won’t), the Padres would have to get close to recouping most, if not all, of the five-prime-prospect return it gave Washington last season.
Shortstop CJ Abrams, who was not the most important player in that package, is having an age-22 season similar in overall value to Anthony Volpe in his age-22 season.
So, would a Yankees deal have to include Volpe plus stuff better than Volpe?
Do the Yankees have stuff better than Volpe to trade?
Would they really give up on Volpe after ignoring starry free-agent shortstop markets for consecutive years?
Also, there is this: Should this version of the Yankees be playing for Ohtani or Soto?
At this time last year, when they expressed interest in Ohtani, the Yankees knew they were going to make the playoffs.
They had a healthy Aaron Judge in the midst of a historic season.
This version has much wrong in many areas, notably on offense.
Sacrificing a sizable group of prospects makes less sense for an organization that, since January 2021, has traded 20 prospects, including 13 pitchers, to obtain Jameson Taillon, Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Heaney, Andrew Benintendi, Scott Effross and Frankie Montas.
An aggressive trade of any type would signal they do expect Judge back in full this year.
But even in that case, the rest of the lineup has been so disappointing that teaming a star with Judge could feel like an Ohtani-Mike Trout replica, which was never enough to push the Angels into the playoffs (albeit with inferior run prevention to these Yankees).
Still, it is not in the Yankees’ DNA to sit out the deadline.
So if Ohtani or Soto is unavailable, beyond the Yankees’ capacity to win a prospect bidding war or not a good idea for the 2023 Yankees, what should they do?
I suspect Cashman will try to replicate last season when he addressed the lineup, the rotation and the bullpen in multiple trades as a way to find wins in myriad areas.
The key, though, is the offense, with left field and third base the most obvious areas.
And though it might be enticing to try to land a walk-year hitter such as Cody Bellinger or Randal Grichuk, the Yankees should be pursuing players who are controllable beyond this season.
Because these Yankees should not be surrendering more prospects without playoff certainty.
More importantly, they shouldn’t be giving up prospects without also addressing the 2024 offense — unless they are foolhardy enough to believe Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton will be wintering at the Fountain of Youth.
I doubt the Orioles, as much as they like Colton Cowser, are ready to put him in center field and use Cedric Mullins to obtain pitching.
I doubt the Cubs would exchange the high ceiling of Christoper Morel for multiple prospects.
But it never hurts to call.
Here are five teams from which I think the Yankees could gain traction with players who could help this year — and beyond:
1. Cardinals
The most obvious trading partner because St. Louis has announced it is open for business, has outfielders, and the clubs made a deadline deal (Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader) last year.
That deal involved a pitcher for an at-the-time injured position player, with both players due to be free agents after this season. Brendan Donovan just had his throwing program shut down due to persistent pain from what the Cardinals have called a flexor strain in his elbow.
He and the Yankees’ Clarke Schmidt are both timelined to be free agents in 2028.
Unlike last year, when they were able to wait on Bader, the Yankees need instant help in the field, and Donovan is going to be just a DH for a while.
Plus, after the Montas experience, the Yankees cannot acquire recently damaged goods and believe the player will get better.
In addition, a deal would cost more than Schmidt because St. Louis doesn’t want to trade Donovan, a lefty hitter who won the NL multi-positional Gold Glove last year.
The Cardinals are open on Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson. O’Neill is right-handed, St. Louis has been trying to move him for a while and the industry is making a statement about him.
O’Neill strikes out too much (as does Nolan Gorman), and the Yankees should have learned a Joey Gallo lesson that a player like that is not going to play to make their lineup better, especially in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh’s Jack Suwinski has a swing made for Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch, and the Pirates could use a middle infielder such as Oswald Peraza as part of a trade. But there is just too much swing and miss.
Carlson is a switch-hitter, but better from the right side.
He would be an upgrade for the Yankees, but his MLB performance does not match the tout on him — scouts too often see a guy just floating through games with too little impact.
2. Diamondbacks
They are loaded with lefty hitters and need pitching.
The Yankees and Arizona were close on Daulton Varsho in the offseason before he went to Toronto, so they know the Yankees’ system well.
Among their lefty hitters are Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Josh Rojas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Canzone and Dominic Fletcher (obviously, their best player, Corbin Carroll, is off limits).
The two who should draw Yankees interest are Thomas and McCarthy.
Thomas is a plus defender who can step into center field if Bader leaves in the offseason.
His offense is meh, but he can do fine against righty pitching right now with the athleticism to improve. McCarthy, after a strong 2022, has taken a step back this year.
But there is some Brett Gardner in him — speed, defense (including in center) and room for his offense to grow.
3. Reds
Another team deep in positional collateral in need of pitching.
But they are in the race, and I did not talk to an executive who believed the Reds would trade from their everyday core, even if they could net pitching that helps now.
Still, the Yankees should inquire on TJ Friedl — who, since his Aug. 16 recall last season, had a .281/.357/.465 slash line while largely playing center.
He has the kind of offensive profile the Yankees’ analytic group hates: his exit velocity and barrel rate are poor.
Does it help that Cashman is a huge Kentucky basketball fan and Friedl’s second cousin is John Calipari?
The two clubs talked extensively last season about Luis Castillo, so the Reds know the Yankees’ system well. Could they get the Reds to talk about Will Benson?
Probably not with the lefty-swinging outfielder in the midst of a breakout season.
Another lefty-hitting outfielder, Jake Fraley, offers power, but not as much all-around upside as Friedl or Benson.
4. Rockies
Third baseman Ryan McMahon is in the second season of a six-year, $70 million contract, and word is he is a favorite of Colorado owner Dick Monfort, so I doubt he would approve a deal.
But the Rockies are far from contention.
Plus, their general manager, Bill Schmidt, and Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer are pals, and I would bet have a similar scouting sensibility.
Thus, Schmidt would like a lot of what is in the Yankees’ system.
It is hard to find lefty-hitting infielders who can defend well, and in McMahon’s case, he also hits fine away from Coors Field.
That combination makes tolerating a high strikeout rate more palatable.
So would including Grichuk in a deal, allowing the Yankees to address two positions for the rest of this season.
5. Mets
I’m not sure the Mets will sell.
Even if they did, I suspect they might not be able to live with helping the Yankees make the playoffs — or more.
But again, this is about a phone call, and the Yankees should call about Jeff McNeil to see: a) Have the Mets soured on him during a struggling season? And b) Are they so gung-ho to add prospect depth that they would be willing to deal the 2022 NL batting champion during the first season of a four-year, $50 million extension with the belief that Steve Cohen’s money could replace McNeil in the offseason?
McNeil is a risk. He is 31.
No player with at least 400 plate appearances last year and at least 200 this season has a greater drop in OPS than the 194 points of McNeil (.836-.642).
He might be experiencing a similar fade a bit younger, akin to another former batting champ, LeMahieu.
But it’s also possible, since McNeil is hitting the ball as hard and neither his strikeout nor groundball rates have spiked, that the issue is adapting to the shift or bad luck.
McNeil can handle a corner outfield spot or second base well and might still have the .300 average in him.
The Twins traded 2022 AL batting champ Luis Arraez for pitching (Pablo Lopez) in the offseason.
Could the Mets do a version of that for pitching depth?