Does Nottingham Forest head coach Nuno know his best team?

In early February, a little more than a month into his tenure, Nuno Espirito Santo was asked if he knew his best Nottingham Forest team.

With six players away on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations and some niggling injury problems to contend with, it was entirely understandable that his answer was a blunt “No”.

But even today, 16 matches into the Nuno era and another month down the line, there remains the sense Forest’s head coach still might not know what his strongest XI is.

It is understandable, to a degree, if he does not. But it is nevertheless a question he may need to be able to answer with a yes soon if Forest are to secure a third consecutive season of Premier League football.

This is not something new.

In their 28 Premier League games this season, stretching well back into his predecessor Steve Cooper’s tenure, Forest have made 77 changes to their starting line-up — the third most in the division. Only Brighton & Hove Albion (108) and Liverpool (78) — clubs who have both had the added complication of European football to contend with — have made more.

And, with inconsistent team selection, inconsistent performances have unsurprisingly followed.

In the aftermath of the 5-0 defeat at Fulham on December 6, two weeks before he was sacked, then Forest coach Cooper spoke about his desire to instil some consistency in the side’s performances — and how he felt there was a relationship between that and consistency in team selection.

“We’ve had our fifth captain (of the season), which tells you everything about how we are trying to settle things down. We’re trying to find a way and if we are nowhere near where we can be, we’ll get punished,” Cooper said. It was a subject he touched on fairly frequently. Cooper was open in his desire to field the same starting XI on a regular basis. So it is unsurprising, in some ways, that the man who replaced him at the City Ground has inherited a similar problem.

Nuno’s three seasons of success at Wolverhampton Wanderers from 2017-20 were built on having a tight, compact squad, which brought an efficiency to training and helped catalyse levels of understanding on the pitch as well as a sense of togetherness.

But after an unlucky 3-2 home defeat against Bournemouth in his first game with Forest, the tone was set for Nuno’s tenure when he made six changes for his second fixture three days later. It worked — they claimed a memorable 3-1 away win against Newcastle United. But then he also did not name an unchanged team for the next game, when Nicolas Dominguez replaced Callum Hudson-Odoi (Ryan Yates also came in for a suspended Ibrahim Sangare) as Forest secured another three points by beating Manchester United 2-1 on December 30.

Hudson-Odoi in action against Newcastle last December (Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images)

In fact, Nuno has never named an unchanged Forest starting XI.

There have been mitigating factors and it has not always been a matter of choice, with injuries and AFCON commitments playing their part in this.

But only six players have started more than half of the club’s 28 Premier League games: Gibbs-White (25), Murillo (22), Anthony Elanga, Orel Mangala (both 19), Dominguez (18) and Matt Turner (17).  Of those, Mangala joined French club Lyon in the winter window and Turner is no longer the first-choice goalkeeper following the arrival of Matz Sels last month. So there are effectively only four players who you can say have been regular starters this season.

Forest have used 33 players overall in those Premier League fixtures, the joint-highest figure in the division, along with Sheffield United.

Inconsistency was also a theme last season, as promoted Forest found their feet in the top flight with a completely new-look squad. They utilised 33 different players then, too — the most in the division. But amid all of that, they had nine who started more than half of the 38 games: Gibbs-White (34), Brennan Johnson (33), Renan Lodi (26), Remo Freuler (24), Serge Aurier (22), Joe Worrall, Yates (both 21), Neco Williams and Mangala (both 20).

GO DEEPER

Joe Worrall’s exit marks the end of an era at Nottingham Forest

During 2021-22, when Cooper replaced Chris Hughton in the September and got Forest promoted via the play-offs, Forest also had nine who started more than 75 per cent of the 46 regular-season league games: Scott McKenna (45), Johnson (44), Yates (41), Brice Samba (40), Worrall (39), Djed Spence (38), Jack Colback, James Garner (both 36) and Philip Zinckernagel (35). So there was a strong, sizable core of regulars.

In contrast, only Gibbs-White and Murillo have started more than 75 per cent of Forest’s league games this season.

Gibbs-White playing against Brighton last weekend (David Horton – CameraSport via Getty Images)

It is hard to escape the notion this lack of consistency has played a part in Forest’s current poor run of one win in eight league games since that defeat of Manchester United.

Within those eight matches there have been performances deserving of better results — odd-goal losses to Brentford, Newcastle, Liverpool and Brighton all featured significant errors from the match officials which had a major influence on the scoreline.

GO DEEPER

Explained: Liverpool’s winner, a drop ball, angry Marinakis and Clattenburg’s cameo

But the two changes Nuno made at Brighton on Sunday, with Elanga and Hudson-Odoi left on the bench and Chris Wood and Dominguez drafted in, did not have the desired effect.

The plan was for Dominguez to help thwart Brighton’s habit of breaking quickly, particularly down the middle of the pitch. And that worked, up to a point. Forest were relatively solid. But, in an attacking sense, the first-half performance that day was — along with the opening 30 minutes against Aston Villa a couple of weeks earlier — as poorly as they have played under Nuno. They lacked urgency, creativity and inspiration.

Between them, Brighton (0.43) and Forest (0.70) had a combined expected goals figure of just 1.13 — the third-lowest total of any Premier League match all season.

“I think we started to find different weapons and different plans (as players were introduced off the bench). You will see that more, moving forward, because the game is 90 minutes,” Nuno said, when asked about his team selection. “We wanted to have control. In the second half, we were more dominant. We did not achieve anything, but the decisions were made around that.”

Forest have very good options in most areas.

Murillo is the most talented young centre-back the club have had in years. Ola Aina looked to be an astute, versatile addition when he joined from Torino of Italy’s Serie A (although he is yet to play for Forest this year, after returning from AFCON, where he helped Nigeria reach the final, with an injury).

Sangare is a midfielder some big clubs across Europe had their eye on before signing from PSV Eindhoven. Dominguez and Danilo both bring some South American flair in the centre of the pitch.

And in the final third, Forest are blessed with some properly exciting options. Gibbs-White is a player who would look at home in most Premier League sides. Elanga and Hudson-Odoi bring pace and directness. Taiwo Awoniyi has a huge physical presence and poses a threat in more ways than one.

Most regular watchers of Forest would pick those four players as their first-choice attacking quartet, even if Wood has proven himself an effective performer at this level, while newcomer Sels is the man most people would choose in goal, partly because of the struggles suffered by summer signings Turner and Odysseas Vlachodimos in the first half of the seasons.

GO DEEPER

Confident, good on the ball and incredibly quick off the line – analysing Matz Sels

But in other areas, the choices are less clear.

Who has been the best partner for Murillo? Andrew Omobamidele had done well, but had a difficult time at Brighton. Moussa Niakhate has previously been reliable but, like Murillo, is left-sided. Willy Boly brings experience. Felipe has quality, but the 34-year-old is starting to feel his age physically.

The full-back area has been impacted by injury as much as any other, with Aina, Nuno Tavares and Gonzalo Montiel all having been sidelined recently. In the meantime, Williams continues his progress towards becoming the kind of player Cooper believed he could be when he signed from Liverpool in summer 2022. But there is still a debate to be had over who Forest’s first-choice full-backs should be.

Williams on the ball against Brighton (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

And which two out of Yates, Dominguez, Danilo and Sangare are the best pairing in midfield?

Forest have 10 league games left over the next two months — 10 matches to secure another year of top-flight football. And while it would be naive to think that Nuno is now going to decide on his best starting XI overnight and stick with it on the run-in, he does need to find a way to get the best out of his players and turn this group into a team who can consistently deliver the level of performance required to stay out of the bottom three.

However, there remains the argument that consistency breeds consistency and amid it all, the more obvious it becomes to Nuno what his best team is, the better the chance Forest have of again avoiding relegation.

(Top photo: MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)