United States’ Brian Harman speaks at a press conference following the completion of his second … [+]
The Claret Jug is nearly in the grasp of American Brian Harman. The 36-hole lefty shoots for his first major championship win Sunday with his caddy Scott Tway adding a calming influence during the final round of the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England.
Harman (-12) will have to battle through the rain scheduled for Sunday at Hoylake. He’ll play in the final group with 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Cameron Young (-7). Third round challenger Tommy Fleetwood (-5), England’s favorite player this week, will have to rally Sunday after shooting an even par 71 Saturday. Jon Rahm (-6) will play in the penultimate group after shooting the low round of the tournament Saturday with a sizzling 8-under par 63 while leading the field in putting during the third round.
“That’s the best round I’ve played on a links golf course ever,” Rahm said in his post-round press conference.
Adjusted Odds to Win Open Championship into Final Round
Leading favorites and contenders golf odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.
- Brian Harman (-12): -200
- Cameron Young (-7): +750
- Jon Rahm (-6): +750
- Viktor Hovland (-5): +2200
- Tommy Fleetwood (-5): +2800
- Jason Day (-5): +3500
- Sepp Straka (-5): +5500
- Antoine Rozner (-5): +9000
- Rory McIlroy (-3): +5500
Harman started Round 3 with adjusted odds to win of +140. Rahm was +10000, or 100/1. Cameron Young was +3300 and Tommy Fleetwood was +400. Harman is now -200 to win after starting the tournament at +12000 or greater at leading online sportsbooks.
Rahm was tied for 89th after Round 1 and just inside the cut line after Friday’s second round. If Rahm were to go on and win The Open and Claret Jug, it would be the furthest position any major champion has every come back from after Round 1.
Other storylines include British Open qualifier Alex Fitzpatrick (-4) outdueling his brother Matt Fitzpatrick (-2), who is ranked No. 9 in the world. Those two shot 65 and 67. And 1000/1 major longshot Shubhanker Sharma (-4), ranked No. 276 in the world, is tied for 9th and in position for a high finish to be able to return to next year’s Open Championship without qualifying.
England’s Matthew Jordan (-3) is also drawing attention. He’s a 3-time club champion at Royal Liverpool who made the field through Open qualifying.
Norwegian Viktor Hovland is sitting tied for fourth into the final round. He T4 at The Open last year and also has top major finishes this year at The Masters (T7), PGA Championship (T2) and U.S. Open (19th).
A total of 11 players shot 67 or better in Round 3, surpassing the first two rounds combined. In total, 13 different countries are represented in the top-16 players into Sunday’s final round.
But it will be an all American final pairing Sunday for just the third time in the past 23 years of the Open Championship.
Open Championship Round 4 Bets
I faded Scottie Scheffler and his putting problems in Round 3, and it worked out in matchups as Scheffler shot a 1-over 72 and is currently plus-4 (+4) for the championship. We’ll look for a similar bet as Round 4 matchups are posted by the leading online sportsbooks.
Harman only has three bogeys during this year’s Open, and leads the field in scrambling and putting. The 5-foot-7 bulldog out of Georgia has just two PGA Tour wins, and none since 2016. He holds a 5-shot lead into the final round, which has been a winning position for other major champions.
Largest 54 hole leads in major championships
But recall Paul Lawrie came from 10-shots back in 1999 to win in the final round at Carmoustie when Jean Van de Velde collapsed and blew a 3-shot lead on the 72nd hole. Tom Lehman had a 6-shot lead into the final round of the 1996 British Open and won by 2-shots.
Harman seems prepared for what’s ahead Sunday.
“Staying patiend is paramount,” Harman said following his third round. He overcame a slower start with a pair of bogey’s early in his round, while also taking some verbal jabs from England’s pro-Tommy Fleetwood fans.
“Tommy and I have been friends for a long time. I knew that he would have a lot of support, and it’s nice to see so many fervor-ish fans for Tommy.”
Open Championship Win Probability
The Data Golf live model still only gave Rahm about a 9% chance to win as tournament leader Brian Harman started the back nine at -10 on Saturday with a 51% win probability. Jason Day and Tommy Fleetwood were also just under 10% probability to win, but Harman went back to a 60% chance to win after he birdied the par 4 at No. 12 to retake a 5-shot lead, and then 73% chance to win after another birdie at the par 3 on No. 13.
Now those odds to win and capture the Claret Jug heading into Sunday’s final round are Harman (71.6%), Rahm (7.7%), Young (7.6%), Hovland (2.8%), Fleetwood (2.5%), Day (2.0%) and all others below 2%.
Data Golf’s live tournament stats show Harman leading The Open field in strokes gained putting and total, and is 5th in tee-to-green behind Young, McIlroy, Hovland and Fleetwood.
Check back for more Open Championship updates, stats and Round 4 bets as we get true links golf and weather to match for Sunday’s final round.
You can bet on it.